Hearts & Minds - Josh Wilson in the box seat but Kate Hulett still has a fighting chance

Get ready for another day of refreshing the Australian Electoral Commission website as the battle for the Federal seat of Fremantle is shaping up to be as tight, if not a tighter contest than the March nail-biter.

As of last night sitting Labor member Josh Wilson has a lead of 2,100 votes over community independent Kate Hulett (52.8% to 47.92%), which is why several news outlets have declared that the popular Assistant Minister for Climate Change the victor over the Fremantle shop-owner who almost unseated Simone McGurk in the State election.

However, there’s still a long way to go in the Freo Federal count and too many unknown factors for anyone to be declared a winner at this stage of an extraordinary contest in which an incumbent in the third safest Labor seat in the country is in the fight for his political life.

Josh Wilson. Credit Mark Naglazas

Kate Hulett. Credit Mark Naglazas

Firstly, the Two Party Count (TCP) has been completed for only 19 of the 44 polling places, which amounts to just 54.52% of the ballot papers. So only half the count has been completed.

Secondly, the ABC’s legendary Antony Green, whose numbers are a mix of projections and counted ballots, also has Wilson ahead but only by 355 votes, which means that he is seeing something in his models that suggests that Hulett is still very much within striking distance of the Labor incumbent.

Thirdly, Hulett has polled so well in booths that you would have expected Wilson to blitz — she lost East Hamilton Hill Primary by just two votes and won Lake Coogee by three — that it suggests not everything will be predictable during today’s count.

Also a number of booths that Hulett dominated in the primary vote around the Fremantle CBD, such as White Gum Valley and North Fremantle, have not reported the TCP count, so it would appear she has plenty of juice in the tank.

And while most of the absentee votes that will be counted today are most likely to flow to Wilson there’s no certainty in an election that has already thrown up plenty of surprises.

So there are still enough unknowns to not count Hulett out.

Even election guru Ben Raue says at this stage it is too close to call.

“Right now Hulett is gaining 67% of preferences on election day and 71% on the pre-poll vote. I extrapolate that trend to produce a Labor lead of 51%, while the ABC has Labor on 50.2%. Certainly looks like it will produce a close race,” said Raue in his blog The Tally Room.

Wilson is most likely to keep his seat, according to most poll watchers and experts, but the Fremantle electorate is so diverse and there have been so many surprises so far that we would be foolish to write Hulett off.

Strap yourself in, folks. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

How bumpy is indicated by the fact that the Australian Electoral Commission is going to speed things up tomorrow. Instead of running ten tables, as they did today, we understand they have amped it up to 30, so the Hulett campaign has put a call out for scrutineers.

“This is easy for the major parties to rustle up, with their paid staff and resources. For an independent campaign run by volunteers, turning out 30 scrutineers overnight is no easy feat. In fact, I’d say it is almost impossible,” said Hulett on social media.

Send Kate a DM and she’ll send the details.

Hearts & Minds aflutter. Watch this column!

* By Mark Naglazas