The federal seat of Scullin is the safest Labor seat in the Commonwealth, according to Antony Green’s calculations. It has a margin of 21.7%.
By comparison, Fremantle, also held by Labor, has a margin of 6.9%.
On this basis, while Scullin is the No 1 safest Labor seat of the 68 the ALP currently holds, Fremantle is the 33rd safest.
So Fremantle’s safe for Labor, but not totally impregnable.
However, it would take a huge swing against the sitting member to see a change of Party in Freo.
At the last, 2019 election these were the candidates and this is how they fared –
You can see the Libs always get close to Labor on first preferences, with the Greens a distinct third. But after preferences, Labor bounds away.
This chart showing the distribution of preferences at the 2019 federal elections is highly instructive –
If these results are indicative of what we can expect at the upcoming 2022 federal elections in the seat of Fremantle then it’s unlikely the Greens can mount a challenge to Labor, or that the Liberals can pull off a surprise win. It may be said, perhaps a little unfairly, that other candidates stand to provide colour and movement for Freo electors. Maybe we will see an anti-vaxxer standing this time? And as we note below, the UAP looks to be running hard in Freo.
So, who are the declared candidates for Freo at this stage? Here’s the list. You’ll notice none of the declared candidates so far, except for Josh Wilson, was a candidate at the 2019 elections. So we have a few new candidates, new to Freo anyway.
And here’s Felicity Townsend’s webpage.
United Australia Party by all reports is throwing something like $80 million at the elections, and appears to be running a candidate in every lower house seat in the country. The Freo candidate is Stella Jinman a teacher and principal. And here’s Stella’s Meta/Facebook page.
One assumes as the month of May gets closer we will become aware of others who decide to throw their hats into the election ring.
As to the date of the election, wise watchers of these things tell us you should put your money on either 7 May or 14 May as the most likely election dates. If Scomo chooses 21 May – the latest date he can go to the only poll that counts – you’ll know he has effectively thrown in the towel!
So, soon after Easter, the school holidays and ANZAC Day, you can expect to be in full voting mode!
Get ready for the candidates debates and regular coverage of the local campaigns here on the Shipping News.
Postscript – Here are our podcast with 6 of the Freo candidates.
* By Michael Barker, editor, Fremantle Shipping News
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