Trump, the Paris Agreement, & Fremantle

After the 2017 Trump withdrawal from Paris a We Are Still In movement was started by Seth Schulz from New York.

Seth and I were part of the IPCC 1.50C Report in Chapter 4 on ‘Enabling Transformation’ which was important for how the Paris Agreement was eventually adopted. It was in an IPCC 1.50C author’s meeting with Seth in 2017 when Trump’s announcement was made. Seth immediately got on the phone and started We Are Still In. Within a week it showed how cities, states and companies were still in and represented over 60% of the US economy.

Eventually We Are Still In reached $9.5 trillion committed to continuing the net zero economy. This movement fed into the development and strengthening of many of the city-based climate resilience organizations such as C40, Resilient Cities, Climate Alliance, ICLEI, Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance, Urban Sustainability Directors Network, Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance. All of these have spread internationally and developed their own regional support processes.

It is possible to disturb the processes of change being unleashed by the Paris Agreement, but the net zero economy will continue to grow. It is being driven by cities who know that investing in the old fossil-fuel-based economy will simply drive them into being globally uncompetitive in the worlds of finance, talent, and quality of life. These are big local political agendas.

Thus, it is more than likely that cities everywhere will continue to take on this new agenda, rather than lining up with the Trump withdrawal.

There are six clearly important innovations that are forming the basis of the global net zero economic agenda:
• renewable energy, especially solar PV and wind with batteries plus some bio-energy sources in regions around cities.
• electromobility, especially with a diversity of non-automobile systems.
• smart cities, especially sensors, apps and ICT (including AI) focused on localised distribution and efficient demand management.
• hydrogen, especially replacing fossil fuels in heavy industry, aviation and shipping.
• circular economy, especially reduced carbon in building and construction.
• biophilic urbanism, especially green infrastructure and local permaculture.

So far the world of finance has committed $2 trillion to this agenda and a further $80 trillion is in the planning stage (link). The rationale for these investments is obviously commercial and the acceleration in uptake of the first three is very obvious with growth rates over 50% (link). The other three are slower as they need more R&D, especially demonstrations that enable them to be integrated into urban development.

The realities of how net zero actually will save our cities from the set of global warming disasters that have begun in LA should also drive our agenda. I prefer to stress the economic opportunities that are now well underway.

The immediate responses to Trump’s withdrawal from Paris were significant rejections at city level based on ‘what happened last time’.

The nations where most of the investment in net zero is happening are China, Europe and the US. The US, who are a distant third, may push some of that away now but in reality its cities may have other ideas.

By national rejection of the global economy through tariffs and other mechanisms the actual cities being favoured with new manufacturing opportunities are still going to have decide what are the best economic outcomes for their populations.

The six new innovations are going to be high on that agenda as they are not just highly commercial in most cases, they are popular at local level. The technologies associated with net zero work best at local level in cities though each city has its own combination of these innovations.

Perhaps the Trump withdrawal will only help the spread of the new net zero innovations. History is now favouring the net zero agenda. So there is hope for cities in the net zero economy not in the denial of climate change.

Fremantle has amazing opportunities to enable projects that are committed to this agenda. Every new development like the Hesperia redevelopment of the Wool Stores, the Future of Fremantle project in North Fremantle and the new Westport project, all have this element embedded into their planning.

I also think that household-based projects are going to continue to grow. Electrify the Valley is steaming along and we have a new Household Guide to Net Zero about to be launched at St Pauls. Watch this space!

Let’s not allow Donald Trump’s politics of despair destroy our hope.

* By Peter Newman AO, Professor of Sustainability at Curtin University and an author in IPCC for 15 years. Peter has been a regular contributor to the Shipping News since FSN was launched 8 years ago. You will find many of Peter’s articles as well as a podcast interview with Peter Newman right here.

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